Understanding Schedule Risks
For many organizations, hitting a deadline is the critical metric for project success. Delivering new capability according to schedule builds trust with clients and stakeholders, demonstrates reliability, and usually has significant financial or legal implications. Some analysts suggest that schedule risks constitute approximately a third of the total project risks encountered, which means it is vital they are understood and managed.
Schedule risks primarily fall into three categories: delays, dependencies, and estimation.
Delay Risks
Most schedule risks come from delays, stemming from factors like parts, information, hardware, and decisions. Parts delays are most frequent, with one study showing they added one month on average to a project schedule. The cause is usually related to availability, delivery issues, or defective components. Delays in acquiring necessary information are also common, with one study suggesting these add up to six weeks to the average project. Globalized teams mean that even simple questions can have a 24-hour turnaround time. Slow decision-making is also a significant cause of delay, often due to stakeholder procrastination and poor access to decision-makers.
Dependency Risks
Dependency risks are the next most common type of schedule risk, with one study showing each incident adds over seven weeks of delay. We can subcategorize these risks into dependencies on other projects, infrastructure, and legal factors. Inter-project dependencies are both frequent and also relatively severe. A compounding effect is often evident, where delays in one project can ripple through a chain of other projects. Infrastructure dependencies include technical service interruptions and access to essential resources. Legal and regulatory dependencies are rarer but can significantly impact the schedule when incidents occur.
Estimation Risks
Many project managers rate estimation as their biggest challenge, but the evidence does not necessarily support this. One study suggests that less than ten percent of scheduling issues were caused by poor estimation. Common reasons for estimation errors include steep learning curves (especially of new technology), optimistic judgment calls, and imposed deadlines. The latter category happens when senior stakeholders mandate an aggressive target date with little input from the project team. Such projects have little chance of success.
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